Brussels has stopped talking about enlargement in the abstract. On 4 November the European Commission published its annual package of country reports, and for the first time it came with indicative roadmaps for the four front-runners: Montenegro, Albania, Moldova and Ukraine. The headline is not that the door is open. It is that the four countries are no longer on the same clock.
According to the Commission, Montenegro has provisionally closed 21 chapters and could close the rest by the end of 2026, subject to agreement from member states. Work on the accession treaty is already under way. Ireland, which holds the Council presidency and leads the talks, is aiming to wrap up all chapters by 15 December and plans to hold a conference every fortnight until then.
The remaining question is what kind of membership Montenegro gets. Member states are starting to debate safeguards for new entrants, including withholding certain veto rights for up to 15 years. Montenegro's ambassador to the EU, Petar Markovic, has warned that heavy-handed safeguards could look to ordinary citizens like punishment for a job well done.
Albania has opened its last remaining cluster and met the interim benchmarks on rule of law, which clears the way to provisionally close four chapters. Tirana aims to finish negotiations in 2027.
Moldova and Ukraine have each opened four clusters this year, and the Commission says both now meet the conditions to open all the remaining ones. The difference is the target date. Moldova is pointed towards closing talks in early 2028. Ukraine's target is the end of 2028. The Commission also says Ukraine's anti-corruption institutions are working effectively, while it still has interim benchmarks to meet on the rule of law.
The timelines are softer than first drafts suggested. In September, Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos had floated an aspirational date for each front-runner, but capitals pushed back on being boxed in, insisting that merit and reform, not the calendar, should set the pace. What survives is a set of targets the Commission may adjust and update regularly.
The verdicts on the rest are harsh. Serbia, according to the Commission, made no substantive progress, polarisation grew and alignment with EU foreign policy stayed low. The report does note that the new government has a strong reform mandate, a nod to the student-led list that unseated Aleksandar Vucic last month. North Macedonia is advancing on opening benchmarks but has still not adopted the constitutional amendments it promised. Bosnia and Herzegovina is, in the Commission's words, increasingly disengaging.
Kosovo gets some relief. The Commission has lifted its measures against Pristina, resumed financial assistance and says it is ready to prepare an opinion on Kosovo's membership application if the Council asks for one. Kosovo has already lost an estimated 43.8 million euros in EU Growth Plan funding after missing a June reform deadline, and must complete another 22 reform steps by year-end to avoid losing a further 131.5 million.
Georgia and Turkey are treated bluntly. The Commission calls Georgia's accession de facto halted and a candidate in name only, short of the nine steps set for candidate status. For Turkey it says the gap between its stated goal and its democratic backsliding has widened.
The package also proposes what the Commission calls gradual integration: a common framework that maps existing EU instruments so candidates can plug into energy, transport, digital and defence policy before they join. Dialogues with candidate countries start within six months. The Commission puts the money in context with a 6 billion euro Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, a 1.9 billion euro plan for Moldova and the 50 billion euro Ukraine Facility.
The roadmaps turn enlargement from a slogan into a schedule that governments can be held to, and they quietly end the idea that Ukraine and Moldova are a package. Moldova can plausibly finish ahead. Ukraine's date depends on rule-of-law benchmarks, on farm and budget talks, and on a Union that is already arguing over how to fund the war. Member states decide next. They will welcome Montenegro, haggle over safeguards, and test how much unanimity they are willing to give up. The next marker is Ireland's push to close Montenegro's last chapters before Christmas.
