Commissioner Marta Kos has called Moldova "the best performer in my class" on accession. The numbers in a June 2026 study from the European Policy Innovation Council (EPIC) say she has a point. They also show how much of the course is still ahead.
EPIC's Integration Readiness Index (IRI), co-published with the Friedrich Naumann Foundation and written by Antonios Nestoras, Emil Kirjas and Bernada Cunj, scores ten candidates from 0 to 10. It uses only the European Commission's annual progress reports, and it measures every candidate against Croatia in 2011.
Moldova's overall score rose from 5.10 in 2023 to 5.57 in 2024 and 5.87 in 2025. That is behind only Montenegro (6.8) and Albania (6.7), and a hair ahead of Ukraine at 5.85. Serbia and North Macedonia sit at 5.5.
The 2025 breakdown shows where the strength is. State of Play stands at 6.0, Annual Progress at 5.8 and Recommendation Delivery at 6.0, each higher than in 2023, when they were 5.3, 5.0 and 5.2. The Chapter Status indicator is the weak spot at 5.0, because no chapters had been opened or provisionally closed. The Accession Momentum indicator dipped from 7.0 in 2024 to 6.8, after the year when Moldova formally opened negotiations and began screening.
The authors read the result as "consolidation rather than acceleration". The Commission reported no backsliding in 2025, more chapters rated moderately prepared with several at a good level, and a growing share of recommendations described as implemented.
The index only counts what the Commission had reported by 2025. Since then, Moldova has moved. Reporting shows it opened its first negotiating cluster, on the fundamentals, on 15 June 2026 and a second, on external relations, on 14 July. In June the EU also separated the technical track from Ukraine's, although diplomats say the political link persists. Moldova's government says it wants to conclude negotiations by 2028 and be ready to join by 2030.
Those steps should lift the Chapter Status score in the next edition. That edition will rest on the Commission's autumn progress reports, which have yet to be published.
Even a good year leaves a big distance. Croatia's 2011 performance scored between 8.8 and 9.2. Moldova's 5.87 leaves it about three points short. The authors put the gap down to persistent constraints in administrative capacity, rule-of-law enforcement and depth of implementation.
Moldova is the clearest case in EPIC's data of a candidate whose process has caught up with its substance. It improved in each year of the index series, with no backsliding, and the Commission is now giving it procedural credit.
The test is the next step. Chapters have to be opened, and then closed, which means turning a better score into laws that are enforced. Its fate is still tied to Ukraine's and to the veto politics inside the EU. The index suggests that the work in Chișinău is moving. Whether the 27 move at the same pace is a separate question.
