The European Union and the United States pulled in opposite directions on Russia this week, and they did it three days apart.
On Monday, EU foreign ministers meeting in Luxembourg ratified the biggest expansion of the bloc's Russia sanctions list since the invasion began, adding nearly 1,600 names. EU envoys had agreed the text the previous Wednesday. High Representative Kaja Kallas said more than half of the new listings are linked to the production chain for the ballistic missiles Russia fires at Ukrainian cities, and that the measures make weapons production far harder, slower and costlier for Moscow.
The listings hit the core of Russia's military industry: 826 companies and 743 executives. The EU describes that sector as employing more than 250,000 people, with annual turnover of at least €20 billion. The firms supply components for missiles, drones and aircraft, from explosives and ammunition to semiconductors and computers.
Ministers also listed 74 State Duma deputies and three members of Russia's Central Election Commission over the parliamentary elections held in occupied Ukrainian territory. Three North Korean individuals and four entities were added over Pyongyang's military cooperation with Moscow. Everyone listed faces an asset freeze, a ban on EU persons making funds available to them and, for individuals, a travel ban across all 27 member states. The additions bring the total sanctioned over the war to nearly 4,600 people and entities.
On Friday, Donald Trump announced a deal to buy diesel from Russia, suspending part of the US sanctions regime to do it. By his account, Russia would deliver more than 300,000 tonnes immediately, 500,000 in November and a million soon after, with about three million more to follow: roughly 4.8 million tonnes in all. He framed it as relief on fuel prices before the US midterms. The numbers are thin. The first 300,000 tonnes cover about 14 hours of American diesel demand. The move has also angered members of his own party, some of whom joined Democrats in arguing it breaks the law.
Poland's foreign minister, Radosław Sikorski, questioned whether Russia can even deliver, given reported fuel shortages in Moscow and damage to its refineries. Sweden's prime minister said Stockholm regretted the deal because energy revenue is central to funding the war. Berlin said its commitment to sanctions is unchanged.
On Saturday Trump went further, saying "I think it's time for Ukraine to get a new president" and blaming Volodymyr Zelensky for high diesel prices. Zelensky rejected the idea on US television on Sunday, saying Ukrainians alone choose their leader. He renewed his call for a 60-day ceasefire that would allow Ukraine to hold elections.
The Financial Times reported on Monday, citing European officials, that US officials have been phoning Kyiv and European capitals to demand an end to Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries. According to those officials, the message included threats to cut intelligence sharing and to halt PURL, the NATO-managed mechanism through which allies buy American weapons for Ukraine. Washington puts no money into that fund; European and other allies pay. The White House declined to comment.
Late on Sunday, Trump announced an "energy ceasefire" under which Russia and Ukraine would stop hitting each other's energy infrastructure. By Monday morning, neither Moscow nor Kyiv had confirmed it.
Meanwhile, five European intelligence services have warned that Russia is stepping up attacks on infrastructure and on the heads of arms companies supplying Ukraine, with military intelligence, the GRU, identified as the main actor. Poland's foreign minister has said NATO members should prepare a robust response to a possible deadly Russian hybrid attack.
Europe is being squeezed from two sides. Russia is escalating against European targets while Washington treats Ukraine's sovereignty as something to trade for cheaper fuel.
The sanctions list is the one lever fully in EU hands, and Monday's vote shows it can still be pulled at scale. But a listing does not stop a missile. If the US did cut PURL, Europe would have to replace American-made air defence and intelligence it cannot quickly produce itself. The diesel deal also hands Moscow a legal route back into the US market just as Brussels tightens the screws. Expect the next test within weeks: whether the energy ceasefire is real, and whether the PURL threat stays a threat.
