A recent report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) reveals that Europe could potentially survive without U.S. military support, but it would require approximately 25 years and an investment of around $1 trillion to replace American capabilities. The study underscores that a hypothetical U.S. withdrawal from Europe would leave NATO members vulnerable to Russian threats, compelling them to make "stark choices" to fill the substantial gaps left by U.S. forces.
According to the report, the costs associated with a like-for-like replacement of U.S. equipment and personnel are estimated to include one-off procurement expenses ranging from $226 billion to $344 billion, depending on the quality of the equipment acquired, along with additional costs for military maintenance, personnel, and support. The most substantial expenditures would involve acquiring 400 tactical combat aircraft, 20 destroyers, and 24 long-range surface-to-air missiles. In the event of a large-scale military operation to counter a Russian attack, the cost to replace U.S. personnel, estimated at 128,000 troops, could exceed $12 billion.
The assessment also highlights other significant gaps that are challenging to quantify, including command and control capabilities, coordination, intelligence, surveillance, and nuclear weapon costs. European nations would need to fill critical leadership roles, such as that of the supreme allied commander in Europe, while enhancing diplomatic coordination efforts.
Filling the gap left by the United States would necessitate a combination of long-term political commitment and ambitious investment; however, European industry currently lacks the capacity to meet the increased demand for military supplies. The IISS notes that European arms manufacturers may face supply chain bottlenecks, shortages of skilled workers, and regulatory constraints in the short term. The "buy European" initiative, championed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, may take time to come to fruition as certain sectors, like naval and aerospace, have seen limited investment.
Despite ongoing reliance on U.S. military suppliers, the report indicates progress is being made, with 52% of procurement value awarded to European suppliers from February 2022 to September 2024, compared to 34% for the United States. In light of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, several NATO countries have increased their defense spending efforts to meet or exceed the alliance's goal of allocating at least 2% of GDP to defense.
The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House may further influence European defense discussions, as his previous demands for increased NATO contributions have cast doubt on America's reliability as an ally. However, public opposition to greater military spending could pose challenges, particularly in countries like Spain and Italy, where public finances are already strained. As Europe navigates this complex landscape, the path toward self-sufficiency in defense remains fraught with challenges and uncertainties.
