The European Union’s latest package of sanctions against Russia is facing significant political challenges, with disagreements over the proposed oil price cap and resistance from Hungary and Slovakia linked to the bloc’s plans to phase out Russian fossil fuels.
The EU’s latest package of sanctions targeting Russia has encountered political obstacles ahead of a key meeting of the bloc’s 27 leaders, casting uncertainty over the timing and approval of the new economic restrictions.
One major point of division concerns the proposed reduction of the price cap on Russia’s seaborne crude oil from $60 to $45 per barrel. The cap, initially coordinated at the G7 level, was designed to limit the Kremlin’s energy revenues. However, at the recent G7 summit in Canada, there was no indication that US President Donald Trump supported lowering the cap; he left the meeting early and has not backed further pressure on Russia. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen subsequently downplayed the urgency of lowering the cap, citing rising oil prices driven by military escalation in the Middle East. By contrast, High Representative Kaja Kallas argued that the ongoing conflict in the region is increasing Russia’s energy revenue, reinforcing the case for a lower cap. Despite the Commission maintaining its proposal, the lack of unanimity among EU member states means the $45 cap is unlikely to move forward.
A second fracture in negotiations involves Hungary and Slovakia, who have linked the new sanctions package to the EU’s roadmap for phasing out Russian fossil fuels by 2027. The roadmap, which covers Russian pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG), would require only a qualified majority for approval, while the sanctions package requires unanimity and can be vetoed. As landlocked countries reliant on Russian energy, Hungary and Slovakia have voiced strong objections, citing concerns over sovereignty, energy prices, and security. They are using their veto on sanctions to seek assurances or concessions related to the energy transition.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó stated that Hungary would not support measures that impose costs on Hungarian families, while Slovak Foreign Minister Juraj Blanár called for guarantees to mitigate negative impacts on Slovakia. Potential solutions discussed include a special fund to assist Hungary and Slovakia in transitioning away from Russian energy, or a formal statement of commitments from the European Commission.
The debate on the 18th sanctions package is set to come to a head at the EU leaders’ summit on Thursday, where Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico are expected to advocate for their positions. Despite the disputes, diplomats remain optimistic that an agreement can be reached before the end of June, when Poland’s presidency of the EU Council concludes. Poland’s secretary of state Ignacy Niemczycki noted differences between Hungary and Slovakia’s positions but expressed confidence that a resolution would be found.
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