Italy and Greece are urging EU and NATO partners to pay more attention to mounting security threats from Libya, citing rising migrant flows and growing Russian influence, even as the focus remains on Ukraine.
Italy and Greece are warning their European and NATO allies not to lose sight of the severe security threats emerging from Libya, amid renewed spikes in migrant flows and growing Russian influence in the North African nation. Rome is particularly concerned about Russia’s expanding presence, including arms supplies to local factions and the possible establishment of a new naval base in Tobruk.
Greek authorities have dispatched two warships to patrol off Libya in response to increased migration and concerns that Turkey is collaborating with Libyans to delineate maritime zones for energy exploration, including waters south of Crete. Athens considers these zones illegal under international maritime law.
Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani described Libya as “an emergency that Europe must address together.” A recent European diplomatic mission to Libya ended in failure, with EU Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner and ministers from Italy, Greece, and Malta declared “persona non grata” in Benghazi by strongman Khalifa Haftar.
“Russia’s role in Libya continues to expand, using it as the central node in its African strategy,” warned one EU diplomat familiar with the issue, noting that smuggling networks in Libya are helping Russia circumvent sanctions and weaponize migration.
Both Italy and Greece recognize that resolving Libya’s instability will require support from major allies such as the U.S. and France, but so far, responses have been limited.
Greece recently announced a suspension of asylum application processing for arrivals from North Africa by sea for three months, citing a surge in arrivals on Crete. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis told lawmakers, “An emergency situation requires emergency measures.” Over 9,000 people have arrived in Crete from Libya this year, almost double the previous year’s total.
In late June, Greece deployed two warships in an attempt to curb migrant arrivals, though officials have expressed doubts about the effectiveness of such patrols. Irregular crossings in the central Mediterranean have increased 7% this year—almost entirely from Libya—while other main routes have seen declines.
Italy is concerned that Greece’s crackdown will push more migrants into Italian waters. “We are concerned about the situation in Libya and the recent increase in irregular departures,” said a European Commission spokesperson.
A recent military parade in Benghazi displayed Russian weapons, highlighting Moscow’s growing ties with Haftar. Russia is reportedly seeking a stronghold in the Mediterranean after losing its lease in Tartus, Syria, and may be eyeing a naval base and missile systems in Libya. Some analysts say Russia uses Libyan bases for operations across Africa and could weaponize migration against Europe.
Despite these risks, Italy and Greece have struggled to rally robust support from allies. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni discussed Libya with French President Emmanuel Macron, but the issue is less central to France, which has scaled back its African presence after setbacks in the Sahel.
With the U.S. increasingly focused on the Pacific, expectations for American involvement in Libya remain low. The latest NATO declaration did not mention Africa, with analysts noting a “minimalist agenda” for the alliance.
“Italy has now to face this reality,” said Alessandro Marrone, head of the defense, security and space program at the Istituto Affari Internazionali in Rome.
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