Giorgia Meloni has rewritten the rules for the election she has to win.
On Thursday, Italy's lower house gave the final green light to a new electoral law, by 227 votes to 164. The vote was secret, which mattered. Meloni had made the bill a test of her coalition, and she had warned that a defeat could open a government crisis. It would not have forced her to resign, but nobody wanted to find out.
Italy currently elects about a third of its seats in first-past-the-post races. The new law drops that and moves to a fully proportional system. The twist is a majority prize. Bonus seats in both houses go to the pre-election alliance that wins at least 42% of the national vote. To qualify, parties must agree on a common candidate for prime minister and a joint platform before voters go to the polls.
Supporters call the law "Stabilicum". Critics call it "Melonellum". Meloni says it gives voters more choice and will make governing coalitions easy to identify, ending the post-election bargaining that has produced fragile governments. Her allies originally pushed it to help her re-election chances next year.
The centre-left calls it a "scam law". It argues the majority prize distorts representation and may conflict with earlier Constitutional Court rulings that struck down parts of previous electoral laws. The Democratic Party and the Five Star Movement have promised to challenge the reform in court once it takes effect, although tensions between the two complicate the build-up of a single opposition alliance.
The coalition is not entirely at ease either. Some lawmakers fear that Roberto Vannacci's National Future party could draw votes away from the governing bloc and put the 42% threshold out of reach. Others warn of higher campaign costs for individual candidates and fewer women in parliament. A preference-vote amendment from inside the coalition was rejected earlier, with allies voting against it. Meloni also comes to the vote weakened: Italian voters rejected her justice-system overhaul in a constitutional referendum earlier this year.
The law bets that Meloni's alliance can reach 42% and that the opposition cannot. If the right stays united, the bonus hands it a comfortable majority on a minority of the votes. If it splinters, the threshold becomes a trap. The election is due by the end of 2027, with speculation about May.
The real test may come in court. A Constitutional Court challenge could force the government to rewrite the system before voters use it. Expect the fight over the rules to run alongside the fight over the result.
