Latvia's government has collapsed. Prime Minister Evika Siliņa resigned Thursday after her junior coalition partner, the Progressives, withdrew support, stripping her of a parliamentary majority. Defence Minister Andris Sprūds went with her. The immediate trigger was political, but the underlying cause was a series of Ukrainian drones crashing on Latvian soil — and a furious debate over who bears responsibility for allowing it to happen.
The incidents took place in Latvia's eastern Latgale region, which runs along the Russian border. Several Ukrainian drones entered Latvian airspace and came down near Balvi and Ludza. One struck empty fuel storage tanks near the city of Rezekne. No casualties were reported, but the political damage was severe.
Kyiv did not dispute that its drones entered Latvian territory. Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha described the incidents as "the result of Russian electronic warfare deliberately diverting Ukrainian drones from their targets in Russia." Latvia's government reached the same conclusion — but domestic critics, including those within Siliņa's coalition, accused Sprūds of leaving the country dangerously exposed. That gap between blaming Moscow and defending Riga's readiness was enough to fracture the governing majority.
For Latvia, a NATO member of 2.3 million people that shares a land border with Russia, air defence is not an abstract policy question. The country has been one of the strongest advocates for extended allied support to Ukraine and has housed NATO troops since Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion. A security incident of this kind — however unintentional its origin — exposes exactly the kind of vulnerability that NATO planners and Baltic governments have long worried about.
Latvia is not the only Baltic state to have dealt with stray munitions. But the political consequence here was immediate and severe. The Progressives used the incident to withdraw coalition support, triggering a confidence crisis that Siliņa could not survive. The defence minister's position became untenable once the coalition fell apart around him.
Latvia had scheduled parliamentary elections for October 2026. They were already expected to produce a competitive race in a country with a fragmented political landscape. The government's collapse months before polling adds a layer of uncertainty that Latvia can ill afford. A caretaker government will manage day-to-day affairs, but major defence and security decisions will lack the political authority that a stable majority provides.
The timing is awkward in European terms, too. Baltic governments have been among the most consistent voices within the EU for strong positions on Russia — on sanctions, on military aid to Ukraine, on defence spending. Latvia without a functioning government is Latvia with a reduced voice in Brussels, at precisely the moment when EU debates on Ukraine support, energy crisis response, and burden-sharing within NATO are reaching decision points.
Latvia's collapse is a reminder of how fragile coalition governments on NATO's eastern flank can be under sustained pressure. Russia's electronic warfare capability — if confirmed as the redirecting mechanism — is being used not just to affect battlefield outcomes in Ukraine, but to create political disruption in neighbouring states. A crisis does not need to be a direct attack to destabilise a government. For European security planners, that is the most uncomfortable takeaway. Latvia will recover — elections will produce a new majority — but the window of political instability between now and October is real, and Russia has shown it is paying attention to every crack.
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