Survey finds broad support for higher defence spending in Europe, scepticism over independence from US

A new survey by the European Council of Foreign Relations reveals strong support for increasing national defence spending across Europe, but doubts remain about the EU’s ability to achieve security independence from the United States within five years.

A major new survey by the European Council of Foreign Relations (ECFR) indicates that support for increasing national defence spending is widespread in Europe. The poll, which included more than 16,400 respondents from 12 European countries, found majorities in Poland, Denmark, the UK, Estonia, and Portugal in favour of raising defence budgets. Pluralities expressed support in Romania (50%), Spain (46%), France (45%), Hungary (45%), Germany (47%), and Switzerland (40%). Italy was the only country polled where a majority (57%) was opposed.

Despite this support, the survey also found significant scepticism about the EU’s prospects for achieving independence from the US in security and defence matters before 2030. Only in Denmark and Portugal did a majority believe this was possible. In France and Romania, 44% and 45% respectively were optimistic, while most people in Poland, Estonia, and Spain were doubtful. Majorities in Italy (54%) and Hungary (51%) said EU autonomy in defence would be "very difficult" or "practically impossible" to achieve in the next five years. Germans were evenly split on the issue.

The survey also revealed that support for Ukraine is not tied to continued US aid. Majorities or pluralities in 11 of the 12 countries opposed the idea of Europe halting military support for Ukraine, urging Ukraine to give up territory, or lifting sanctions on Russia, even if US policy changes.

The findings come ahead of a NATO summit in The Hague, where defence spending is expected to be a key topic. Former US President Donald Trump has called for increasing NATO’s defence spending target from 2% to 5% of GDP. The current proposal is for an increase to 3.5% for core military spending and an additional 1.5% for defence-related investments. Spain has expressed opposition to the 5% target, with Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez calling it unreasonable and counterproductive.

The ECFR survey also found that in Spain, more respondents worried about not spending enough on defence than about spending too much, although a majority did not express an opinion. Across all 12 countries, views were evenly split on whether excessive or insufficient defence spending was a greater concern.

The EU has announced a programme to boost defence production and deployment, aiming to encourage member states to invest €800 billion in the sector over the next four years. The plan allows for flexibility in fiscal rules for defence spending, offers preferential loans, and enables the repurposing of untapped EU funds for defence investments.

Defence is also expected to be a central topic at an upcoming EU leaders’ summit in Brussels.

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