Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is emerging as the main conduit between Europe and Donald Trump’s orbit, eclipsing Hungary’s Viktor Orbán in influence and appeal.
Meloni not only understands the threat Russia poses to global stability and Europe’s security but also – a great advantage in the competition with the Hungarian for influence in Washington – she grasps the performance-driven nature of Trumpian diplomacy.
Following Meloni’s recent charm offensive in the United States, she earned high praise from Trump. “Everyone loves and respects her, and I can’t say that about many people,” said Trump. “I would say that she has taken Europe by storm.”
Trump added that Italy could be the top European ally. “Only if the prime minister remains the prime minister can it be our best ally. She’s doing a great job. She’s a fantastic person and doing a great job and our relationship is great.”
Orbán once had reason to hope that Trump’s return to the White House would strengthen himself, along with the rest of Europe’s far-right.
After Trump claimed in February that Ukraine had provoked the war while dismissing Volodymyr Zelensky as “not very important” to peace talks, despite Zelensky’s strong approval ratings at home, the Ukrainian president himself warned that Orbán’s team was feeding Kremlin-aligned disinformation to Trump, blaming NATO expansion for Russia’s invasion. Trump should be speaking directly with Zelensky, not to those “who walk around the table,” Zelensky said.
To be sure, there remains rapport between Trump and Orbán forces. At a recent private forum in Budapest, Donald Trump Jr. praised the personal relationship between Orbán and Donald Trump as a foundation for deeper economic ties, while hailing Hungary’s “rational, people-centered policies” compared with Western Europe.
But while Orbán has long positioned himself as Europe’s leading nationalist conservative voice, his stock is falling in Washington. His open admiration for Vladimir Putin and his role in obstructing EU consensus on Ukraine are increasingly viewed as liabilities rather than strengths.
Orban's prospects are more clouded now in multiple respects. Hungary's economy is weakening under the weight of US tariffs, and political opposition to Orbán is rising for the first time in over a decade. Trump’s trade war has forced Europe to unify and rearm, leaving Orbán isolated as the EU’s most vocal Trump supporter.
Péter Magyar is emerging as the strongest challenger Orbán has faced in 15 years. His TISZA party has surged to a 14-point lead over Orbán’s ruling Fidesz party, according to the 21 Research Center, placing TISZA within striking distance of a two-thirds parliamentary majority ahead of Hungary’s next election in April 2026. While momentum is on Magyar’s side, much work remains to turn polling strength into an electoral victory.
"I wouldn't say that Meloni has more influence over Trump in a substantive sense," Treston Wheat, chief geopolitical officer at risk consultancy Insight Forward and adjunct professor at Georgetown Universitym said in an interview. "Rather, she’s pursuing a diplomatic style that captures Trump’s attention and aligns with his preference for personal rapport over policy alignment."
"Meloni has been savvy in using public praise, symbolic gestures and political flattery to create the impression of alignment, which is often more effective with Trump than ideological closeness alone," Wheat continued. "She understands the theater of diplomacy, and she's playing it well."
"I don't believe Orbán is a big star in Washington," Taras Kuzio, a political science professor at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, said in an interview. "The European nationalist who is Trump's European favorite is Meloni. Most countries view Orbán as a joke."
Compounding Orbán’s isolation, Hungary’s deepening ties with China are also likely to undercut Orbán’s standing. Budapest has become a hub for Chinese influence in Europe, hosting joint technology ventures and even allowing Chinese police patrols on Hungarian streets. Facing economic troubles and growing political opposition at home, Orbán is betting heavily on Chinese investment to fuel his reelection campaign.
In contrast, Meloni has kept her distance from Beijing, aware that Trump’s foreign policy instincts remain focused on confronting China. She previously formally withdrew Italy from China’s Belt and Road Initiative, signaling a clear shift away from Chinese influence.
The top US envoy to Hungary recently warned Budapest about the risks of deepening ties with China, signaling a potential strain in Orbán’s otherwise close relationship with Trump. Despite Orbán’s efforts to attract major Chinese investments, capturing 44% of China’s European investment, Trump’s hardline stance against China could create friction.
Meanwhile, Hungary’s economy minister said the country won’t scale back ties with China, rejecting US pressure to distance itself from Beijing.
"By contrast," Wheat explained, "while Viktor Orbán has long positioned himself as a leading voice of 'nationalist conservatism' in Europe, his increasingly close ties with China, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative and joint education or tech ventures, are likely to become a liability due to Trump’s renewed focus on US-China competition.
"Trump's view of China is transactional and strategic," Wheat continued, "and while he has tolerated authoritarian leaders, he’s also quick to call out trade or tech alignments that he sees as threats to American power."
Orbán’s alignment with Russia and China and his estrangement from the rest of the EU have turned him into a spoiler rather than a serious strategic player. Meanwhile, his allies in Moscow have vowed to eradicate the “revival of European Nazism" as Europe prepares to rearm itself against a bloodthirsty imperial Russia.
Meloni, although ideologically aligned with many nationalist-conservative positions, has proved more pragmatic. She has maintained strong ties with NATO and taken a firmer stance against Moscow, giving her credibility in both Washington and Brussels.
At a time when Europe's security hangs in the balance, Meloni’s leadership provides an important counterweight, offering the Trump administration a clear-eyed perspective on the threat posed by Russian aggression, in stark contrast with the influence Viktor Orbán might have wielded as a second-rate Rasputin.
